From the James Delingpole blog at the Telegraph…its interesting to note the amount of people commenting on his articles. It will be interesting to see where this story runs….
Uh oh, global warming loons: here comes Climategate II!
Breaking news: two years after the Climategate, a further batch of emails has been leaked onto the internet by a person – or persons – unknown. And as before, they show the “scientists” at the heart of the Man-Made Global Warming industry in a most unflattering light. Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Kevin Trenberth, Keith Briffa – all your favourite Climategate characters are here, once again caught red-handed in a series of emails exaggerating the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming, while privately admitting to one another that the evidence is nowhere near as a strong as they’d like it to be.
In other words, what these emails confirm is that the great man-made global warming scare is not about science but about political activism. This, it seems, is what motivated the whistleblower ‘FOIA 2011’ (or “thief”, as the usual suspects at RealClimate will no doubt prefer to tar him or her) to go public.
As FOIA 2011 puts it when introducing the selected highlights, culled from a file of 220,000 emails:
“Over 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 a day.”
“Every day nearly 16.000 children die from hunger and related causes.”
“One dollar can save a life” — the opposite must also be true.
“Poverty is a death sentence.”
“Nations must invest $37 trillion in energy technologies by 2030 to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions at sustainable levels.”
Today’s decisions should be based on all the information we can get, not on
hiding the decline.
FOIA 2011 is right, of course. If you’re going to bomb the global economy back to the dark ages with environmental tax and regulation, if you’re going to favour costly, landscape-blighting, inefficient renewables over real, abundant, relatively cheap energy that works like shale gas and oil, if you’re going to cause food riots and starvation in the developing world by giving over farmland (and rainforests) to biofuel production, then at the very least you it owe to the world to base your policies on sound, transparent, evidence-based science rather than on the politicised, disingenuous junk churned out by the charlatans at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
I particularly like the ones expressing deep reservations about the narrative put about by the IPCC:
/// The IPCC Process ///
Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical
troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a
wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the
uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these
further if necessary […]
I also think the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it
which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run.
It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much
talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions are made at the eleventh hour by
a select core group.
Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive […] there have been a number of
dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC […]
The trick may be to decide on the main message and use that to guid[e] what’s
included and what is left out.
I agree w/ Susan [Solomon] that we should try to put more in the bullet about
“Subsequent evidence” […] Need to convince readers that there really has been
an increase in knowledge – more evidence. What is it?
And here’s our friend Phil Jones, apparently trying to stuff the IPCC working groups with scientists favourable to his cause, while shutting out dissenting voices.
Getting people we know and trust [into IPCC] is vital – hence my comment about
the tornadoes group.
Useful ones [for IPCC] might be Baldwin, Benestad (written on the solar/cloud
issue – on the right side, i.e anti-Svensmark), Bohm, Brown, Christy (will be
have to involve him ?)
Here is what looks like an outrageous case of government – the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – actually putting pressure on climate “scientists” to talk up their message of doom and gloom in order to help the government justify its swingeing climate policies:
I can’t overstate the HUGE amount of political interest in the project as a
message that the Government can give on climate change to help them tell their
story. They want the story to be a very strong one and don’t want to be made
to look foolish.
Here is a gloriously revealing string of emails in which activists and global warming research groups discuss how best to manipulate reality so that climate change looks more scary and dangerous than it really is:
we as an NGO working on climate policy need such a document pretty soon for the
public and for informed decision makers in order to get a) a debate started and
b) in order to get into the media the context between climate
extremes/desasters/costs and finally the link between weather extremes and
[…] idea of looking at the implications of climate change for what he termed
“global icons” […] One of these suggested icons was the Great Barrier Reef […]
It also became apparent that there was always a local “reason” for the
destruction – cyclones, starfish, fertilizers […] A perception of an
“unchanging” environment leads people to generate local explanations for coral
loss based on transient phenomena, while not acknowledging the possibility of
systematic damage from long-term climatic/environmental change […] Such a
project could do a lot to raise awareness of threats to the reef from climate
<4141> Minns/Tyndall Centre:
In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public
relations problem with the media
I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global
What kind of circulation change could lock Europe into deadly summer heat waves
like that of last summer? That’s the sort of thing we need to think about.
I’ll have a deeper dig through the emails this afternoon and see what else I come up with. If I were a climate activist off to COP 17 in Durban later this month, I don’t think I’d be feeling a very happy little drowning Polie, right now. In fact I might be inclined to think that the game was well and truly up.
I know how this guy feels. Well said.
Interesting times ahead. I recall seeing a young guy on the BBC news recently – he was from DEMOS – talking about the need for schools to teach young people ‘critical thinking’ while browsing on the internet. All good so far. I suppose it really depends on how this training is delivered. How I wish there was a move to teach the same wariness over what the BBC and ITV jackanory shows put out. Again I have to tick this post ‘funny’ because if you have a look at the classroom when the Demos visitor is there, tbey can barely string a sentence together.
Maybe Jamie is worried about the children going to sites like Global Research
The reaction comments to the DEMOS piece are followed in their own (quite revealing) site and are an entertaining read
And while we have all that to enjoy, christmas approaches 🙂
I remember how this made me feel when I was young. A bit of escapism is sometimes just the job…
The chance of reading an article like this in the Irish Times just half a year ago was quite unlikely. There is something happening over there…
The UK and Irish press is silent now on Iceland; they told the IMF to get lost, and have just jailed their second raft of bankers. For more on iceland, see Max Keiser on the links panel to the right or go to http://www.globalresearch.ca/
I wonder if it is too late for articles like this though. The 55 comments on the Irish Times site are almost as interesting:
(Robert Pye’s 7 papers warning of collapse as far back as 2004 can be downloaded here: 50015511-The-Destruction-of-the-Irish-Economy-by-Jeremy-James)
The Irish Times – Friday, May 6, 2011
Stop Brussels elite from ransacking our country
OPINION: We must face down the jackals who control the international banking system to save our nation and protect our children’s future
THERE IS considerable truth in the view that Ireland is no longer a sovereign state but an impoverished suburb of Brussels. Four million people are mired deep in a collective debt that is not of their own making, while persons unknown decide just how much more we “owe” and the terms and conditions under which this ever-expanding debt must be repaid.
We have lost control of our finances, have only a marginal role in determining the key parameters of public policy, and are being compelled by international institutions to hand over our national assets at fire-sale prices.
At least the Vikings focused mainly on coastal areas, but their latter-day counterparts are ransacking the nation from end to end. And unless we stand our ground – a modern equivalent of the Battle of Clontarf – they will take everything that’s worth taking.
The state of denial that prevails nationally at present was an intrinsic part of the mindset in the Department of Finance during the period 2000-2008. The idea that anything might happen that could throw our booming economy into a tailspin was simply anathema – as was anyone who dared to entertain such views.
Between June 2004 and November 2005, I circulated seven papers to a number of well-placed senior managers in the department, alerting them to a range of geopolitical factors that could have a sudden and highly detrimental impact on the Irish economy. These were not short opinion pieces but ran to 24,000 words in total.
Collectively they constituted, I believe, a strong, factually based argument, drawing on a variety of inter-related indicators, which showed that an international financial crisis was imminent. Indeed the final paper (November 2005) was entitled Eight Reasons why a Global Economic Shock is Inevitable by end-2008 .
Since I had regular official contact with most of the senior managers in the department, I expected my warning to receive serious consideration, but it was completely ignored. I couldn’t get a workshop or an internal debate of any kind.
At a meeting with three senior managers I was told that, while the risk factors which I had identified were plausible, there was not the slightest possibility that they would receive a hearing at a political level.
Most managers appeared to expect a gradual tightening of credit on the international markets and a manageable levelling-off in Irish property prices. No one seemed willing to entertain the possibility that the alternative, the sudden onset of a major international credit crisis, would have catastrophic implications for the Irish economy. In fact, even a more modest contraction than that which occurred in 2008 would have caused serious problems for the Irish banking system, the property sector and the public finances.
This failure by the department was not due to any lack of economic expertise or to an inability to comprehend the alleged complexity of the issues involved. To understand the problem we must look elsewhere.
In my submission to the Wright committee, which reported on the department’s performance over the period 2000-2008, I made the following observation:
“The government had no incentive whatever to take corrective action. It was reaping a colossal revenue windfall, most of which it then channelled into current expenditure. As an egregious violation of the most basic principles of economics, this is probably impossible to beat. Many commentators bleat about the need for greater specialist skills in economics and financial management in the department, but this is nonsense. The mistakes that were made had nothing to do with skills. They were due rather to the appalling inability of the department to impress upon the government the sheer recklessness of its policies [emphasis in the original].”
In the course of my seven papers, I made a number of observations about the world financial system that strongly suggested that a global credit crisis was looming, with dire implications for the Irish economy. For example, the volume and complexity of financial derivatives was growing so quickly that the true market value of the underlying assets could easily – and advantageously – be misrepresented.
Furthermore, the big institutions had no incentive whatever to give an accurate profile of the risks associated with each asset or asset class. Interest rates in the United States and Europe were far too low, leading to market distortions, property bubbles and a serious misallocation of capital. The failure of the US to support the dollar – despite the rhetoric – was rapidly eroding confidence in its reserve currency status.
The price of oil could go in only one direction and, with ongoing US involvement in the Middle East, continuity of supply would become a strategic target in its own right. Debt instruments were increasingly being treated as risk-free securities and traded so widely and so rapidly that serious exposures could quickly accumulate in a given sector. This meant that, if a major international bank over-reached itself, it could drag a number of others down with it before the authorities had time to intervene.
The US was showing such an appetite for direct military intervention, and a perverse willingness to commit itself to significant and unquantifiable costs in several theatres of war at the same time, there was not the slightest possibility that its budget deficit would fall below $500 billion, and could well reach a trillion within a few years. (It is now 1.5 trillion and rising.)
With a 40 per cent fall in its industrial capacity in just 25 years, a staggering and unsustainable trade deficit, and a massive burden of unfunded liabilities (social security and medicare), the US economy could only be held together by a dangerous expansion of its money supply (“quantitative easing” is now in full swing).
Given that the financial sector accounted for 35 per cent of corporate profits (up from 15 per cent in 1975) and the irresponsible removal of important legal restrictions on the kinds of activity that financial institutions could engage in, the opportunities for trading recklessly in a rapidly expanding money supply would prove irresistible. This in essence was the main thrust of my argument.
I strongly recommended that the State run a large budgetary surplus for up to six years and build up a substantial sinking fund to reflate the economy after the tsunami struck; that the availability of credit to domestic borrowers be greatly curtailed; that the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) switch heavily into commodities and precious metals; that a far greater proportion of the national debt be denominated in dollars to take advantage of its inevitable significant fall in value; and that the major financial institutions be urged to reduce their exposures to the markets that would suffer most when the tsunami struck.
The running of budget surpluses over a five- to six-year period would also help greatly to mitigate the fiscal impact of the coming tsunami.
With reference to the NPRF recommendation, gold has since risen 225 per cent, silver 445 per cent, nickel 120 per cent, cotton 290 per cent, rubber 230 per cent, tin 390 per cent, palm oil 200 per cent, cocoa 135 per cent, and coffee 125 per cent. (As my wife said when she read this paper: “That says it all.”)
Regarding its statutory role, the department traditionally saw itself as the last line of defence against the predations and venality of a self-serving political caste. In the course of the 1990s, however, as the public coffers expanded, a polar shift occurred and the department began to see itself merely as a provider of “advice” to the government. Its defensive role was forgotten.
It is probably fair to say that, thereafter, whatever the politicians wanted, the politicians got. The department had no vision of its own for Ireland, nor any sense of the dangers lurking in deep waters. It had ceased to stand as a bulwark between the people and the politicians and had become instead an obedient arm of government, with no mind of its own.
I feel this is a fair analysis and one which the generality of hard-working civil servants in the department would find acceptable.
The failures leading up to the crisis, however, were well and truly matched by some dreadful errors after it struck. Just as the department had failed to stand up to a rampant, irresponsible government in the run-up to the crisis, it failed thereafter to face down the sharks and jackals who control the international banking system.
The self-appointed and well-concealed elite who run Brussels will continue to siphon off the wealth and sovereignty of the Irish people until they awake, throw off the appalling shroud of apathy that envelops them and shout, “Enough!”
We owe nothing to the international bankers. Our public assets are ours and will remain in our possession.
They call us PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) because that is what you do with a pig: tie him upside down, slit his throat and drain him dry.
Well, I for one reject this disgusting epithet. I also reject utterly the despicable arrogance with which this country is being treated, and the servile ineptitude of those who pose as our leaders.
Unless we take a stand and defend our sovereignty, our integrity and our children, we will be destroyed as a nation.
ROBERT PYE BIOGRAPHY
ROBERT PYE worked in the Department of Finance for 31 years and achieved a variety of senior positions within it, retiring as an assistant principal.
Between 1995 and 2009, Pye was involved in strategic management co-ordination. This included working as secretary to the assistant secretary group, the principal officer group, and the departmental partnership committee.
He was responsible for co-ordinating the preparation of all statements of strategy, published by the department since 1997, as well as all progress reports on them; the department’s official risk management strategy, its framework of assignments of responsibility for all officers at principal level and above, and all progress reports on change management developments and initiatives across the department.
He also held responsibility for co-ordinating the preparation of the department’s annual output statement for the Oireachtas Finance and Public Service Committee and organised the department’s annual conferences between 2000 and 2007.
In October 2010, Pye made a submission to the review panel established by the then minister for finance Brian Lenihan to examine how the Department of Finance had performed in the previous 10 years.
The review, which reported in December 2010, was chaired by Rob Wright.
In his submission, Mr Pye said he declined at least three offers of promotion between 2000 and 2008 for personal reasons and “because I had long been concerned at the extent to which the department is influenced, if not controlled, by the political system”.
“I greatly enjoyed my work and found it both challenging and rewarding, he told the Wright review. “I was allowed a high degree of autonomy and, for the most part, there was a clear willingness on the part of management to both hear what I had to say and to give it due consideration. Many of my ideas and suggestions over the years were implemented. . .
“I feel it is important to provide this career-related information in order to establish that I am well qualified to comment on the department, its workings and its management. As it transpired, very few people would have had such a broad overview of the department or such regular contact with the top three layers of management over such a long period.”
Pye’s academic qualifications include an MA in logic and psychology (1980) and in 1986/87, he was the TK Whitaker Fellow with the Economic and Social Research Institute.
Pye is 55 and lives in north Wicklow with his wife and two daughters.
Max Keiser made a small film recently about the criminal looting of Ireland.
He covers NAMA (National Assets Management Agency), Anglo Irish Bank, the 300 000 ‘ghost’ houses left in the wake of one of the most extreme property bubbles Europewide. Default on Mortgages as a ‘crime’ in Ireland (eh?)…National minimum wage slashed, money for woman and children stripped out of national budget, meanwhile the IMF and EU borrow money to repay the very bankers who created the trouble and the people of Ireland are expected to be held in hock for generations to come…
Here is something from a man who took on Bank or Ireland – and won:
According to Darrell, This EBook will open your eyes to the corruption, endemic in our banking system, law system and other governing bodies.
Read it and form your own opinion.
The question and answer session is even better than the brief speech.
From David McWilliams – http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie
No wonder the Greeks are upset. Yesterday, the IMF and the EU were busy trying to limit the damage following their mission to Greece. One auditor, also the EC representative, Servaas Deroose, encouraged the Greeks to “sell beaches” to pay back the IMF/EU loan.
We should take heed, because we are next.
What would you be prepared to sell to pay back the IMF/EU deal, which is designed to bail out bank gamblers who punted on Anglo? The Aran Islands? Dogs Bay or maybe a big slice of Achill? The Rock of Cashel — that’d make a few quid.
Mr Deroose has revealed something about the thinking behind the IMF/EU loan and the sequence of events in Greece and Ireland as the EU Commission sees it. Bad enough to have a citizen of the most fiscally incontinent country in Europe — Belgium — lecture us on government excess, worse to have him indicate that the fire sale of state assets is the endgame.
So let’s get things straight: the Irish citizen is being asked to take on the debts of the European banks and pay for this by selling our assets for half nothing to the same banks so that we can bail them out. We take on debts without a discount and sell assets without a premium. At the moment these loans that we are being asked to pay are trading at a deep, deep discount because the “assets” they were supposed to back have collapsed in value. Yet we are being asked to pay for these loans at par.
At the same time, our crucial and profitable state utilities — like the ESB — will be sold at a discount because the buyers will know that the sellers are screwed.
This is what is going on. An organised heist, which will play out in front of our eyes and reward the very investment banks that blew their own and their clients’ money on the promises of David Drumm and the like. Meanwhile, our politicians argue over the rate of interest, begging for crumbs when they should be fighting for us.
Someone has to stop this because the words of the EU Commission in Greece are directed at us too.
Is there anything we can do?
Yes there is. Whatever you might think of some senior European politicians, they are democrats. They are bonded together by the vision of Jean Monet and Schuman — the founders of the EU. Central to this vision was the notion of forgiveness. When I studied at the College of Europe in Bruges, this message was articulated again and again. Europe was a family of nations and once you were in the family, the family treated you as an equal and no matter what your previous behaviour, there was always a chance of redemption.
This allowed Germany to recover after the War and it is the same attitude which is allowing Serbia, a country which orchestrated genocide in Bosnia less than two decades ago, to seek EU membership.
In short, there are many more democrats in European politics than there are central bankers.
There are many more elected politicians with a broad European view informed by history than there are unelected central bankers with a narrow monetary view.
We need to bring this battle to generous European politicians and wrestle the details out of the mean fingers of bureaucrats and central bankers who were never elected and have no mandate.
You put it to the people. The new government should put to a referendum the question of making any further payments from the citizens to the bank creditors. This would give the new government a clear democratic mandate with which to negotiate. There is no democrat in Europe who would oppose the will of the people and it would get straight to the point where the political economy bulldozes the financial economy. It would also give the Government huge authority on the biggest issue facing us all.
But can it be done?
Yes, article 27 of the Constitution governs the circumstances where a decision which is of “such national importance that the will of the people thereon ought to be ascertained”. Article 27 has never been used for this purpose but there is provision in the Constitution for a referendum on something which is simply so important that the people should be able to vote on it.
So it can be done, but is it now too late?
No, it is not too late for two reasons. The first is that if we do not stop paying out money to the bondholders, we will default on everything — sovereign debt and all — eventually. This would be a disaster for every Irish person. The second reason is that the situation is getting worse.
Behind our back, the Irish banks keep issuing government- backed paper in our name and this is happening on a daily basis, welding us ever tighter to the delinquent banks. This has to stop.
Since the last week of January, Irish banks have issued €18.35bn worth of government guaranteed debt. So the reliance of Irish banks on government guaranteed debt has risen from €16billion in mid-January to about €34billion today.
This debt is being issued to allow the banks to either (a) unwind their positions with the Irish Central Bank’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance (basically the printing of money by the CBI) or (b) boost their funding position ahead of the bank stress test that is currently being carried out by the Central Bank.
Of course, all of this bank stress-testing is missing the point. The stress test that is now needed is a stress test on the State. Instead of believing the politicians that the State will be able to pay €100bn to the banks and everything will be fine, we should test the numbers and see if that is actually possible.
But, of course, that test will not be carried out. Because a stress test of the Irish State would show the one thing that no politician is willing to admit — that the State is currently insolvent, and the Government guaranteeing another €18billion of debt only serves to make that problem worse.
One way to put a stop to this madness is by holding a referendum. If ever there was an issue of such national significance, this is it. The time for a popular plebiscite has come.
Read more and readers comments at: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/02/16/before-we-sell-the-country-we-should-ask-the-people
Two recent editions of the International Forecaster here for you to download and read. Lots of interesting information within….
Right, I’ve been quiet so must have a few things to bring back here. Ahhh, yeah I think so. Its amazing how poor the coverage has been on the massive (50,000+) protest to the GPO in Dublin…but there are a few wee sites out there with a bit more information. This one http://www.sovereignindependent.com/?p=10342 might not be as entertaining as http://maxkeiser.com/ but is a good starting point.
Anyway, I’m not going to get stuck into the Irish stuff too deeply just tonight. Here’s Farage having another nip at his pals in the European Parliament. Check out the coupons on Barroso and Von Rumpuy…
A previous classic encounter with Herman can be enjoyed here:
More tomorrow 🙂 eh perhaps on some DIY maybe you’ve had enough of the politics for one day